Project : Agricultural systems and urban supply network structures in the long duration
Financement dans le cadre du programme Energence 2015
Main scientific domain : social ecology and complex system modelling.
Project leader : Petros Chantzimpiros
A major current sustainability challenge is to achieve food supply security within the context of energy transitions and anthropogenic climate change. Urban food supply and, therefore, the security of more than half of today’s world population now rely on high fidelity production and supply systems. Yet, it massively depends on finite resources such as non-renewable energy stocks and other key but short-term depleting inputs like phosphorus and fossil-based nitrogen fertilizers. We target to explore agri-food systems properties in space and time and search for possible structural invariants. We work on a two-century-wide study period ( 1800-2000) taking France as a reference case. One challenge is to understand the drivers of long-term evolutions and build predictive mathematical models for the governance of sustainable growth transitions. Another major challenge is to mathematically link agri-food metabolic regimes, climate, technological resource use and urban population. The project builds on biophysical and socio-technical data from archives, statistics, literature and weather backcasting simulations.